Expectation is not a strategy

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

This famous quip from Keynes is great advice for anyone in many situations.

Sometimes, I’ve been in a position where I succeed if things happen the way I think they should happen.

Other times, I’ve been in a position where I succeed even if things happen contrary to my expectations.

You always want the latter, especially when it’s something beyond your control.